Model-based Prediction of Critical Illness in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19.

Background The prognosis of hospitalized patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is difficult to predict, and the capacity of intensive care units was a limiting factor during the peak of the pandemic and is generally dependent on a country's clinical resources. Purpose To determine the value of chest radiographic findings together with patient history and laboratory markers at admission to predict critical illness in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Materials and Methods In this retrospective study, which included patients from March 7, 2020, to April 24, 2020, a consecutive cohort of hospitalized patients with real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction-confirmed COVID-19 from two large Dutch community hospitals was identified. After univariable analysis, a risk model to predict critical illness (ie, death and/or intensive care unit admission with invasive ventilation) was developed, using multivariable logistic regression including clinical, chest radiographic, and laboratory findings. Distribution and severity of lung involvement were visually assessed by using an eight-point scale (chest radiography score). Internal validation was performed by using bootstrapping. Performance is presented as an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Decision curve analysis was performed, and a risk calculator was derived. Results The cohort included 356 hospitalized patients (mean age, 69 years ± 12 [standard deviation]; 237 men) of whom 168 (47%) developed critical illness. The final risk model's variables included sex, chronic obstructive lung disease, symptom duration, neutrophil count, C-reactive protein level, lactate dehydrogenase level, distribution of lung disease, and chest radiography score at hospital presentation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the model was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.81; P < .001). A risk calculator was derived for individual risk assessment: Dutch COVID-19 risk model. At an example threshold of 0.70, 71 of 356 patients would be predicted to develop critical illness, of which 59 (83%) would be true-positive results. Conclusion A risk model based on chest radiographic and laboratory findings obtained at admission was predictive of critical illness in hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019. This risk calculator might be useful for triage of patients to the limited number of intensive care unit beds or facilities. © RSNA, 2020 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

COVID-19 on Chest Radiographs: A Multireader Evaluation of an Artificial Intelligence System.

Background Chest radiography may play an important role in triage for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), particularly in low-resource settings. Purpose To evaluate the performance of an artificial intelligence (AI) system for detection of COVID-19 pneumonia on chest radiographs. Materials and Methods An AI system (CAD4COVID-XRay) was trained on 24 678 chest radiographs, including 1540 used only for validation while training. The test set consisted of a set of continuously acquired chest radiographs (n = 454) obtained in patients suspected of having COVID-19 pneumonia between March 4 and April 6, 2020, at one center (223 patients with positive reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction [RT-PCR] results, 231 with negative RT-PCR results). Radiographs were independently analyzed by six readers and by the AI system. Diagnostic performance was analyzed with the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results For the test set, the mean age of patients was 67 years ± 14.4 (standard deviation) (56% male). With RT-PCR test results as the reference standard, the AI system correctly classified chest radiographs as COVID-19 pneumonia with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.81. The system significantly outperformed each reader (P < .001 using the McNemar test) at their highest possible sensitivities. At their lowest sensitivities, only one reader significantly outperformed the AI system (P = .04). Conclusion The performance of an artificial intelligence system in the detection of coronavirus disease 2019 on chest radiographs was comparable with that of six independent readers. © RSNA, 2020.

The Role of Chest Imaging in Patient Management during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Multinational Consensus Statement from the Fleischner Society.

With more than 900 000 confirmed cases worldwide and nearly 50 000 deaths during the first 3 months of 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has emerged as an unprecedented health care crisis. The spread of COVID-19 has been heterogeneous, resulting in some regions having sporadic transmission and relatively few hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and others having community transmission that has led to overwhelming numbers of severe cases. For these regions, health care delivery has been disrupted and compromised by critical resource constraints in diagnostic testing, hospital beds, ventilators, and health care workers who have fallen ill to the virus exacerbated by shortages of personal protective equipment. Although mild cases mimic common upper respiratory viral infections, respiratory dysfunction becomes the principal source of morbidity and mortality as the disease advances. Thoracic imaging with chest radiography and CT are key tools for pulmonary disease diagnosis and management, but their role in the management of COVID-19 has not been considered within the multivariable context of the severity of respiratory disease, pretest probability, risk factors for disease progression, and critical resource constraints. To address this deficit, a multidisciplinary panel comprised principally of radiologists and pulmonologists from 10 countries with experience managing patients with COVID-19 across a spectrum of health care environments evaluated the utility of imaging within three scenarios representing varying risk factors, community conditions, and resource constraints. Fourteen key questions, corresponding to 11 decision points within the three scenarios and three additional clinical situations, were rated by the panel based on the anticipated value of the information that thoracic imaging would be expected to provide. The results were aggregated, resulting in five main and three additional recommendations intended to guide medical practitioners in the use of chest radiography and CT in the management of COVID-19.

The Role of Chest Imaging in Patient Management During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Multinational Consensus Statement From the Fleischner Society.

With more than 900,000 confirmed cases worldwide and nearly 50,000 deaths during the first 3 months of 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has emerged as an unprecedented health care crisis. The spread of COVID-19 has been heterogeneous, resulting in some regions having sporadic transmission and relatively few hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and others having community transmission that has led to overwhelming numbers of severe cases. For these regions, health care delivery has been disrupted and compromised by critical resource constraints in diagnostic testing, hospital beds, ventilators, and health care workers who have fallen ill to the virus exacerbated by shortages of personal protective equipment. Although mild cases mimic common upper respiratory viral infections, respiratory dysfunction becomes the principal source of morbidity and mortality as the disease advances. Thoracic imaging with chest radiography and CT are key tools for pulmonary disease diagnosis and management, but their role in the management of COVID-19 has not been considered within the multivariable context of the severity of respiratory disease, pretest probability, risk factors for disease progression, and critical resource constraints. To address this deficit, a multidisciplinary panel comprised principally of radiologists and pulmonologists from 10 countries with experience managing patients with COVID-19 across a spectrum of health care environments evaluated the utility of imaging within three scenarios representing varying risk factors, community conditions, and resource constraints. Fourteen key questions, corresponding to 11 decision points within the three scenarios and three additional clinical situations, were rated by the panel based on the anticipated value of the information that thoracic imaging would be expected to provide. The results were aggregated, resulting in five main and three additional recommendations intended to guide medical practitioners in the use of chest radiography and CT in the management of COVID-19.